Critical mineral processing will be won by those who scale smarter
Industrial scale-up is becoming the next competitive advantage
Securing critical minerals is no longer only about finding resources. As demand continues to grow, the ability to scale processing operations reliably, efficiently and sustainably is becoming a key competitive advantage. Harry Gulestøl, Business Development Director for Industry Norway at AFRY, explains why future industry leaders will be defined by industrial execution rather than resource access alone.
Across the mining and metals value chain, attention is shifting from resource discovery to industrial execution. For many producers, the challenge is no longer proving that a process can work, but proving that it can perform reliably at industrial scale.
The next bottleneck is industrial
Critical minerals are essential for electrification, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing and industrial resilience. Yet the strategic value of these resources is not created by geology alone. It is created when raw materials can be transformed into industrial products with consistent quality, predictable performance and reliable supply.
Recent market and policy developments point in the same direction. Critical mineral strategies are increasingly focused not only on extraction, but also on processing, refining, recycling and qualification of materials. The EU Critical Raw Materials Act, for example, includes specific targets for processing and recycling capacity, while analysis from the International Energy Agency highlights the continued concentration of refining capacity for several critical minerals. This underlines why processing capability is becoming a strategic issue in its own right.
Value-chain analysis consistently shows that significant value is created downstream through processing, refining and qualification. The strategic advantage comes not from resource access alone, but from the ability to transform raw materials into reliable industrial products that meet increasingly demanding performance requirements.
Many projects demonstrate promising results in laboratories, pilot facilities and demonstration plants. The real challenge comes later: achieving stable, efficient production at industrial scale.
“Securing resources is only the beginning,” says Harry. “The critical question is whether we can turn those resources into reliable industrial production. That requires process understanding, engineering discipline, automation and operational data working together from the start.”
The companies that succeed will not necessarily be those with the largest resource base. They will be those that can move from technical promise to operational performance faster than their competitors.
From pilot success to industrial performance
Scaling critical mineral processing is rarely straightforward.
As projects move from pilot operations to full-scale production, variability becomes a reality. Feedstock quality changes, impurities behave differently over time, recovery rates fluctuate, and energy consumption, water balance, reagent use, filtration, corrosion, maintenance and product specifications become more difficult to control. What works during a pilot campaign does not automatically translate into consistent industrial performance.
As Harry points out: “The critical step is often not proving that a process can work in a pilot. It is proving that it can work every day, at industrial scale, with variable raw materials, demanding quality requirements and strict cost and sustainability targets.”
This makes ramp-up a critical phase. Investors, customers and stakeholders increasingly expect evidence that a process can deliver stable production, predictable quality and operational reliability. The faster companies can demonstrate this capability, the stronger their competitive position becomes.
Projects such as Boliden's Green Zinc Odda expansion illustrate how industrial scale-up can create value beyond increased output. By modernizing and expanding the zinc smelter, Boliden is increasing annual production capacity to 350,000 tons while reducing carbon intensity by 15 percent and improving recovery of valuable by-products, including lead, gold and silver. The project highlights how competitiveness increasingly depends on the ability to increase output, improve resource utilization and reduce environmental impact simultaneously.
Quality is becoming a strategic capability
For many critical minerals, availability alone is not enough. Battery manufacturers, magnet producers and advanced industrial customers require materials that meet strict specifications for purity, consistency and performance. This raises the importance of process control and operational excellence.
Small improvements in recovery, uptime, energy performance or quality consistency can have significant commercial impact. Companies that understand process variability and maintain stable operating conditions are often able to reach nameplate capacity faster and with lower risk. In this environment, processing know-how becomes a strategic advantage. Criticality is increasingly linked to quality, not only availability.
Data and AI can accelerate scale-up
Data and AI are becoming important tools for industrial scale-up. During ramp-up, operators need to understand the relationship between feed quality, process parameters, energy consumption, equipment performance and product quality. Better visibility enables faster learning and more informed decision-making.
However, data and AI only accelerate scale-up when data is structured, contextualized and connected to the physical process. The value is not in the algorithm alone, but in the ability to connect feed quality, process parameters, equipment performance, product quality, energy use and emissions into one industrial learning loop.
Industrial AI is not about experimenting with algorithms on the side of the business. In critical mineral processing, it is about learning faster, stabilizing production earlier and scaling with better control,
Harry explains.
The greatest value comes when digital capabilities are integrated into industrial operations, helping companies identify operating windows, improve recovery rates and support proactive decision-making. The risk is slower learning, higher operating costs and less predictable performance during the most critical phase of industrialization.
Connecting disciplines to scale smarter
Successful scale-up requires more than technology. It requires integration.
Process engineering, automation, operational data, energy systems and sustainability performance all need to work together. When these disciplines are treated separately, companies often struggle to optimize the overall production system.
The most successful producers focus on improving critical industrial outcomes: higher recovery, lower energy intensity, more stable production, stronger quality control and faster ramp-up.
Technology creates value when it supports these objectives rather than existing as a separate initiative.
“The future critical minerals agenda will not be solved by one discipline alone,” Harry says. “It will require geologists, process experts, automation engineers, digital specialists, project teams and operators to work from the same industrial reality.”
Industrial execution will define future winners
The race for critical minerals will not be won through resource access alone.
“Securing critical minerals is not only about finding resources,” Harry concludes. “It is about building the industrial capability to turn those resources into sustainable, competitive and scalable production. The companies that succeed will be those that scale smarter from the start.”
As critical mineral demand continues to grow, the ability to scale processing performance, optimize resource utilization and achieve operational excellence will increasingly define the industry's future winners.
