Electrification - a necessary condition for the green transition

Access to electricity is one of the fundamental prerequisites for successfully replacing fossil-based technologies with cleaner, green technologies. To implement a rapid transition and eliminate as many of the fossil-based solutions that dominate the market today, the ability to produce, distribute and store energy will be of paramount importance.

Per shares his insights into the importance of electrification and its challenges with the interaction linked to multiple sectors, sustainability, recycling, circularity etc.

"A lot has happened and will continue to happen in the battery sector in the coming years leading up to 2030. It is still a relatively immature industry with many new players who all have their own idea of how they can manufacture more sustainable batteries, more easily, faster and at a lower manufacturing cost," says Per.

What are the driving forces?

What has had the greatest impact in recent years is our focus on EV batteries for the automotive industry, where the massive investments made in Sweden in particular have had a major impact globally. It is this industry that is driving the volume of batteries with technology that is optimised primarily for cars. But there is another area where batteries will make an even bigger difference and have a greater global impact on how we manage our climate transition, and that is in energy storage.

What opportunities does energy storage create?

Wind and solar farms are two good examples. These solutions need to be able to store their energy when they are generating a lot of electricity to balance peaks and troughs in production to make the energy source more predictable. For this purpose, we can use batteries in some form to store the energy to equalize both power and frequency, before sending the electricity to the grid. There’s enormous potential if we were to utilize all the large roofs and facades that exist in industry facilities, regional and public buildings and all private homes.

In addition, diesel or petrol generators are often used in many places as a backup system, or as the sole energy source where electricity is not available and therefore requires a temporary solution. This quickly adds up to millions of liters of fossil fuels that can be saved. Energy storage also plays an important role in the smart grids of the future, which can be both regional and local, be used as a price equalizer, backup power during outages and to reduce the need for new transmission grids which are very expensive and take a long time to build.

What challenges do you see in the battery sector?

Extensive research and development are underway to find more sustainable minerals, materials and chemicals for batteries ensuring the Earth’s finite resources can meet our future needs, especially to achieve the green transition. It’s important to realize that different applications require different technical solutions and no single battery technology will solve all needs.

In the automotive industry, the goal is to get as much power per unit weight as possible from a battery cell, while for energy storage it matters less if it weighs a little more and takes up a little more space. For stationary storage the main concerns are electricity-to-electricity efficiency, RTE, and a low price, ensuring that as much stored energy as possible can be used at the lowest possible cost. This creates opportunities to use simpler techniques and materials that are not critical or rare on our planet as well as less toxic chemicals such as water-based electrolytes.

Research on developing sustainable materials and more sustainable manufacturing has therefore advanced further for these types of batteries due to fewer constraints. However, the challenge lies in lack of volume compared to EV batteries, which affects both investors’ willingness to invest money and the ability to attract initial customers to scale up production.

Five years from now - what do you see happening?

Energy storage will be the major breakthrough both for our chance to manage the green transition by electrifying the industry and perhaps most important, to prevent the collapse of the Earth's resources and environment. We must remember that 80% of the world's electricity production still comes from oil, gas and coal. This demands rapid change and there are likely simpler measures to drastically and quickly reduce this figure - if the will exists.

The manufacturing process will also become more and more efficient, as more European machine manufacturers enter the market, focusing on operation and maintenance. Combined with the development of battery technologies using simpler materials and chemicals, this will reduce the energy required for production. This in turn will help to lower cost per cell produced.

What factors influence development?

Clearly, the availability and distribution of green electricity, as well as the current electricity pricing within the EU, poses a significant threat to the industry's transition to more fossil-free production. This slows down the investments that have been made and risks hindering future ones. It is unfortunate if the industry has to pull the handbrake either because they do not get the effect they need or to meet their electricity bills instead of investing in the future towards fossil-free production.

Even the incentive for both individuals and companies to invest in solar panels with battery storage or to switch to electric cars also decreases when subsidies, fees and taxes change significantly at short notice. Of course, for the EV market, electricity prices and the price difference to fossil alternatives also have an impact. These are some of the elements that have the greatest impact in the short term, but in the longer term, the availability of raw materials will be the major bottleneck with rising prices and speculation as a result.

What could bridge this gap are recycling and major technological leaps that allow us to produce batteries with equal or better performance in a more sustainable way minimizing the global footprint.

What is your perspective on the importance of mining?

The mining and mineral processing industry has always been and will continue to be very important to our global growth. But we need to be able to mine more minerals in more places in a smarter way. All the research that is being conducted today, to which AFRY is also contributing, will be key in this.

In conclusion?

We need to remember that we can’t save our way out of the climate crisis, we must invest in new technology and new solutions to deal with this. The Governments and municipalities must act as enablers, ensuring that the right conditions exist to transform society. It’s a must to use our global resources efficiently, otherwise we will run out of critical minerals within 15 years.

One major issue that we and others are focusing intensively on is recycling. How can we minimize the extraction of virgin minerals and instead reuse and recycle? In order to cope with this transition, more electricity is needed to convert to fossil-free operation and for green investments in industry to be given permission.

AFRY's offering in the battery sector

AFRY is actively engaged in a wide range of investment projects within the battery sector. These span from collaborations with vehicle manufacturers and the construction of large-scale GIGA factories—including recycling facilities and energy storage systems—to supporting innovative start-ups at various stages of development.

We provide strategic support to both investors and companies planning to enter or expand in the battery industry, offering services such as technical evaluations, permitting processes, and comprehensive reporting. Our involvement often includes contributing expertise to the development of test and demonstration facilities, which can evolve into pilot projects and eventually full-scale industrial production or battery storage systems.

In addition, AFRY plays a key role in regional and municipal projects focused on charging infrastructure and community planning, helping to prepare for the growing demands of electrification. Across all phases of a project, we bring together the right skills and specialists to ensure successful outcomes.