The future of space: Current trends and need for increased space expertise

The space sector is undergoing a transformative change, with new applications and markets being established. For example, we see an increased need for space technology to monitor and tackle climate change. At the same time, major investments in space technology are underway, with the aim of protecting societies and critical infrastructures, but also investments in space defence as conflicts on Earth risk spreading to space.

Both governmental and private actors are developing and investing in advanced strategies to defend their space assets, as cyber threats to satellite systems and networks become more common. Besides security aspects, the space industry also faces significant challenges with space debris and the regulation of the growing number of satellites in orbit.¹

Opportunities and challenges in a new era of space technology

The space sector is facing a dynamic future with new areas of use and growing markets. Increased investments in space technology to protect societies and tackle climate change make space central to both security and sustainability. At the same time, the commercialisation and increase in satellites create a growing need for effective data management and space debris handling.

Advancements and challenges of the commercialisation: data management and space debris in focus

Private actors are driving innovation and creating new opportunities for commercial satellite services and space travel. This development has resulted in lower costs and greater accessibility, making space a central arena for growth and business development. However, this growth also presents several challenges, particularly in managing the enormous amount of data produced. The difficulty lies in being able to filter, detect, and analyse relevant information to effectively share and link it to specific needs.

At the same time, the sharp increase in satellites, especially from commercial actors, increases the risk of collisions and the creation of space debris. A collision with space debris can have catastrophic consequences, especially if it damages satellites that are crucial for communication, climate monitoring, or defence.

Increased investment in space defence and security

The increased threat landscape in the space sector during 2023 and 2024 is characterised by several countries developing and using advanced space weapons and jamming systems. China, Iran, North Korea, and the U.S. have all conducted tests and operations that include anti-satellite weapons, signal jamming, and electronic countermeasures. These activities create dangerous space debris and disrupt critical navigation and communication services, affecting both military and civilian assets in space.²

With an increasingly uncertain geopolitical situation, the major challenge is to strengthen Sweden’s, and other countries’, ability to protect their satellite and communication systems from both physical and digital attacks, thereby securing their national security and defence capabilities. Swedish authorities and defence organisations have begun making significant investments in space defence, and now have a great need for expertise, solutions, and strategies.

On October 4th, the government decided to allocate one billion SEK to the Swedish Armed Forces to develop their space capabilities over the next eight years. The investment includes space-based reconnaissance and surveillance, independent launch capabilities, and military space situational awareness.³

Space technology as a vital tool in the fight against climate change and natural disasters

Climate change and intensified natural disasters create an urgent need for advanced monitoring and analysis, where space technology and satellites play a crucial role. Satellites offer a unique opportunity to monitor and study the Earth’s atmosphere and environment, and can for example detect wildfires or provide an overview of floods and droughts. This gives researchers and decision-makers the necessary information to anticipate and manage these types of risks.⁴

Globally, there has been a sharp increase in investments in space technology for climate monitoring, including the EU:s Copernicus program and NASA:s Earth Science Division. Sweden is at the forefront when it comes to using satellites for climate monitoring, supporting both Sweden’s and the UN’s sustainability goals. However, to maximise the potential of space technology, global collaborations, technological advancements, and solutions to address both economic and practical challenges are required.

Development of international space policies: A necessity for a safe and sustainable future in space

One of the biggest challenges with the increasing commercial and military presence in space is the need to develop international policies, laws, and frameworks. These are crucial for regulating the use of space technology for defence purposes, and for managing the threat of collisions and space debris. Additionally, clear regulations are required for the sustainable management and allocation of space resources, including optimising systems’ lifespans, reuse, and future proofing. It is also necessary to consider ethical issues such as the protection of potential life forms and the preservation of the space environment, as well as to impose sanctions on actors who violate sustainability principles in space.

Global space projects depend on coordination across national borders. To ensure peaceful and sustainable use of space, improved mechanisms for international cooperation are needed, including the exchange of knowledge, resources, and technology. The Artemis Accords, which Sweden joined in April 2024, is an important step. The Artemis Accords is a set of principles and guidelines for international space cooperation and includes, among other things, transparency regarding plans and compatibility of systems and technologies.

However, there is still a long way to go to achieve comprehensive international politics for space. More areas need to be addressed, such as obligations, prohibitions, ownership rights, and responsibilities. Additionally, more countries need to join, including China and Russia, in order create robust global space policies.
 

The way forward: Solutions to address global challenges and strengthen Sweden’s space capabilities

With space programs expanding worldwide, there are significant opportunities for Swedish actors to engage in international space projects. International collaborations and the development of global space policies are crucial to addressing the challenges we see in the space sector. Through technological advancements and effective strategies, we can ensure a safe and sustainable future in space and on Earth.⁵

Space-based systems with digital solutions and data-driven services play an increasingly important role in defence, security, and climate - and Sweden can take a significant role here. These systems are also crucial for achieving the UN’s climate and sustainability goals, where space technology can contribute to all 17 goals. For example, satellites enable the dissemination of real-time information even to remote locations, increasing both prosperity and global transparency, that promotes democratic processes.⁶

AI and automation can revolutionise the operation and security of satellite systems

To achieve the sustainability goals, advanced digital and software-driven solutions are needed to handle the vast amount of data generated and required to meet the growing needs, demands, and threats in our environment. By using AI and machine learning, we can effectively analyse and filter data, enabling the quick identification and prioritisation of relevant information.⁷

Digital systems and automation will also be crucial in reducing the risk of collisions by tracking space debris and automatically adjusting satellite orbits based on the obtained space situational awareness. AI can be used to optimise satellite operations and extend their operational lifespan, reducing both costs and environmental impact. Moreover, it is necessary to develop self-removal systems for decommissioned satellites.

Strategic measures to strengthen Sweden’s civil-military space capability

To address the deteriorating global security situation and the military buildup in space, strategic measures are required to strengthen Sweden’s civil-military space capability and cooperation. The measures proposed by the Swedish National Space Agency include establishing a space situational awareness and promoting civil-military cooperation in space technology. Additionally, the importance of ensuring a national capability to design, build, and launch our own satellites is emphasised.

With NATO’s recognition of space as an equally important operational domain as land, air, sea, and cyber, Sweden, as a member, should work towards close cooperation between organisations on space issues and provide space capabilities and services where appropriate.⁸

The Swedish Armed Forces have highlighted that cyber-secure space systems should be applied to protect critical infrastructure, such as communication and weather monitoring satellites. These systems need to be both robust and redundant to ensure that essential functions are not disrupted by physical or digital attacks.

Sweden can play a central role in the future space industry

Sweden has unique opportunities and capabilities due to our geostrategic location, and we have already demonstrated strong space competence in areas such as AI, robotics, sustainable systems, and green energy, as well as robust mobile satellite communication. However, to strengthen global cooperation, education and competence development within space law are required so that an international space regulatory framework can be implemented.⁹

In summary, Sweden faces both great opportunities and challenges in the space sector. With the right investments, international collaborations, and technological advancements, the country can play a central role in shaping the future space industry while contributing to sustainable global solutions.