Max Larsson - expert in Carbon Capture

What is carbon capture and how critical is the technology?

“Residual emissions” describe the emissions that remain after we have reduced as much as possible through green electricity, renewable fuels, and new processes. These emissions can come from transport that cannot be electrified, agriculture or other land use, and certain industrial processes that are very difficult to transform or eliminate – such as process emissions from cement production.

This is where carbon capture and storage in permanent carbon sinks – also known as Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) – comes in as a complementary measure to further reduce climate impact.

“With the right conditions in place, the potential for this technology to mitigate the climate crisis is enormous, not least for Sweden. At the same time, there must be viable conditions for carbon capture from a business perspective – it needs to be profitable,” says Max. He adds that flue gas in the form of biogenic CO₂ emitted from chimneys has value – it can be seen as a new product that generates benefits both for the environment and for companies.

Can you give a concrete example of carbon capture?

“Cement production is one example where the technology can make a major difference in reaching our climate goals on time. Around 8% of global CO₂ emissions come from the cement industry. Roughly one third of these emissions come from the fuel used in production, and two thirds come from the process in which calcium carbonate is heated to form calcium oxide. If only the fuel is replaced, only one third of the problem is solved. If we want to continue producing cement as we do today, carbon capture is needed to capture the fossil process emissions – alongside solutions such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, and circular approaches,” says Max.

How large is the potential for carbon capture in Sweden?

“Sweden has strong potential to become a leading player, particularly in biogenic carbon capture for the export of carbon removal credits and the use of CO₂ in areas such as electrofuels and the green transition of the chemical industry. All forecasts point to bio-CCS playing a key role in enabling large-scale carbon storage, which is fundamentally necessary in many respects. Sweden and Finland have many biogenic point sources, for example from combined heat and power plants and the forest industry – in other words, CO₂ originating from biomass,” says Max.

One sector that has significantly reduced its emissions over the past 30 years is the pulp and paper industry. Between 1990 and 2023, CO₂ emissions decreased by 65%, mainly by replacing oil with biofuels and electricity¹ ¹. For the pulp and paper industry, bio-CCS in Sweden could potentially store around 20 million tonnes of biogenic CO₂ annually.

Can bio-CCS enable exports for Sweden?

“There is enormous export potential for Sweden in achieving net negative emissions through bio-CCS and selling certificates to countries and companies that do not have the same opportunities. This is due to the large number of biogenic point sources in our industry that have good potential for energy integration of carbon capture, as well as the fact that the biomass originates from modern and certified forestry,” says Max.

He also highlights the Swedish Forest Agency and forest industry’s strong capabilities in mapping timber resources, ensuring traceability, and monitoring carbon balance – for example, whether more is being harvested than is stored based on forest growth.

“Bio-CCS could become an even more important part of how Sweden meets its climate targets, particularly in light of new findings suggesting that forests may not be growing as quickly as before and therefore may not store as much CO₂ equivalent as previously estimated. The debate around reduced harvest levels and carbon deficits in forests may increase the importance of bio-CCS, both as a contributor to climate targets and as a business opportunity for the pulp and paper industry,” says Max.

Opportunities and challenges

The ability to store carbon dioxide underground depends on geological conditions and may therefore be limited in Sweden. Compared to neighboring countries Norway and Denmark, Sweden lags behind in both the availability and maturity of geological storage sites. This means that Swedish bio-CCS projects need to transport captured CO₂ to locations where it can be stored – which can be challenging from both a safety and cost perspective. When transported by ship, CO₂ must first be liquefied before it can be received at the storage site and injected underground.

Liquid Wind’s project Flagship Two will produce e-methanol and is an example of a project where CCS is planned to be used to handle fossil emissions from waste incineration. AFRY is involved as a project partner both for the municipal utility Sundsvall Energi AB and for the project developer Liquid Wind.

Max emphasizes the value of collaboration:

“At present, many actors are trying to develop the entire value chain themselves, from CO₂ capture to transport and storage. For CO₂ transport in particular, there are major cost savings to be achieved if projects collaborate in so-called hubs, where infrastructure costs can be shared. If we are to realize the full potential of CDR as a Swedish export market, the government needs to take a more active role in developing large-scale shared infrastructure for transporting captured CO₂.”

Buying and selling certificates – benefits for both climate and business

There is also what is known as the voluntary carbon market (VCM), where companies can purchase carbon removal certificates. This enables businesses to voluntarily offset their emissions by buying credits from projects that reduce or remove CO₂ from the atmosphere – such as carbon capture and storage.

What impact does policy have on the direction forward?

“The SEK 36 billion allocated by the Swedish Energy Agency may be enough to support 1–2 larger BECCS facilities with a capacity of around 1 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. At the time of writing, Stockholm Exergi has been awarded SEK 20 billion of the total for its 0.8 million tonnes CO₂/year project. To meet climate targets, projections indicate that we need facilities capturing around 5–7 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. This figure may increase given recent developments regarding reduced growth rates in Swedish forests. It is very positive that the government is investing – but more will likely be required,” says Max.

Moving from idea and development, through permitting, to building full-scale production typically involves a project timeline of around 5–7 years, while current investment levels can only contribute to a limited share of what is needed. Time is becoming a constraint.

Key priorities for carbon capture in Sweden over the next 10 years, according to Max:

• Increased public funding so that the state can procure volumes in line with what projections indicate is required to meet (EU-driven national) climate targets.
• The establishment of a national CO₂ infrastructure strategy, where government funding helps enable the necessary infrastructure, reducing costs for a wide range of projects and supporting the growth of a new Swedish export industry.
• Continued strong growth of the voluntary carbon market (VCM), including companies that have signed up to SBTi* purchasing CDR certificates.
• Clearer legislation, particularly regarding the allocation of negative emissions, which is currently being developed within the EU. The underlying premise is that the EU maintains its climate targets.
• Ensuring that Sweden makes full use of all biogenic CO₂ to create a new export market for CDR and CCU.

AFRY’s offering

In 2024, AFRY was involved in nearly 100 CCU and CCS projects. For example, we support Heidelberg Materials in Brevik, act as Due Diligence Advisor to Microsoft’s CDR programme, and work with the e‑fuel project developer Liquid Wind.

At AFRY, we bring together a unique combination of management consultants and specialists in process and energy engineering. We understand how to integrate the technology to minimize costs, while our advisory experts assess business opportunities and the client’s role in the value chain to create viable and profitable CCUS projects.