The real barriers to fossil exit and how to break them

In 2024, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached an estimated 53 GtCO2e, a 1.5% increase from 2023, driven primarily by continued fossil fuel combustion and rising demand in aviation and shipping. Despite progress in renewables deployment and electric vehicle uptake, the world remains on an upward emissions trajectory. To stay aligned with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, global emissions must fall by 42% by 2030, a target far off course.

Against this backdrop, the recent COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, produced important pledges: a global commitment to phase out fossil fuels, triple renewable capacity by 2030, double energy efficiency by 2030, and provide $300 billion annually in climate finance by 2035. While significant, these measures still fall short of what is needed to meet net zero by 2050, a benchmark only achieved in the most ambitious IPCC1 scenario. At COP29, a new climate finance target was agreed, but it still falls short of meeting the scale of support needed. Carbon market operationalization marked progress, yet the lack of consensus on fossil fuel phase-out remains a key gap.

In Europe, the adoption of the Clean Industrial Deal after the 2024 elections signalled political continuity. Building on the Green Deal, it supports climate-friendly technologies, sustainable production, and the circular economy. By contrast, economic momentum has slowed, particularly in Europe. High energy costs have hit energy-intensive industries, especially in countries formerly reliant on cheap Russian gas or facing high transition costs.

Regulatory and reporting obligations at both EU and national levels have increased administrative burdens for companies. In parallel, escalating trade tensions between the United States, the EU, and China risk further weakening global economic growth at a critical moment for the energy transition.

Since 1990, global emissions have increased by 50%, broadly in line with population growth from just over 5 billion to more than 8 billion. Yet the core issue remains unchanged: fossil fuels still dominate and CO₂ emissions from their combustion remains the largest contributor to climate change.

To explore possible futures, the IPCC developed the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which model emissions and warming outcomes based on policy ambition. The currently expected pathway, SSP2-4.5, corresponds to a 2.7°C rise by 2100, with emissions in 2050 at roughly today’s levels. On a per capita basis, emissions will likely fall, as global population is expected to approach 10 billion by 2050, indicating marginal efficiency gains but not systemic decarbonization.

Only the SSP1-1.9 pathway, consistent with net zero by 2050 and 1.5°C alignment, delivers a sustainable future. Most developed nations (e.g. EU, USA, Japan, Canada) have committed to 2050 net zero targets, while China targets 2060 and India 2070. Yet delivery on these commitments remains uncertain amid geopolitical fragmentation, financial constraints, and slow implementation.

The need for long-term strategic thinking and effective action to address the climate crisis has never been more urgent. Policymakers and stakeholders must close the ambition gap and accelerate the transition towards a climate-resilient, low-carbon global economy.The global transition away from fossil fuels is not a linear shift but a complex, multi-dimensional restructuring of energy, industrial, and material systems. At the core lies the rapid scale-up of renewables, particularly solar, wind and hydropower, which form the backbone of a future fossil-free energy system. Yet the transition is far more than a matter of technological substitution. It demands systemic transformation across infrastructure, supply chains, business models and governance, requiring deep alignment among public, private and civil society actors.

AFRY’s 2024 Fossil Detox Report responded to a stark reality: global GHG emissions have not yet peaked. While renewable energy deployment
has accelerated and policy ambition has grown, fossil energy use, especially oil and gas, remains entrenched. At the same time, several governments have pivoted towards more conservative agendas, delaying or diluting key transition efforts. Despite these setbacks, the long-term imperative of a sustainable, net-zero future remains. This ongoing misalignment highlights the need for a carefully managed and coordinated transition that safeguards sustainability, affordability, energy security, and social cohesion amidst growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

In the 2024 edition, AFRY set out a clear vision: electrification is the central pathway to deep decarbonization, supported by a complementary suite of levers including clean fuels, efficiency measures, and carbon removals. The report outlined a comprehensive set of priority action areas, spanning technologies, sectors and enablers, that must advance in parallel to deliver net-zero outcomes. These included scaling renewable generation, decarbonizing heating and transport, expanding grids and storage, enabling circular material use, and unlocking solutions for residual emissions.

The message was unequivocal: transformational action is urgently needed across all major emitting sectors. Success hinges on clear long-term policy signals, aligned financial flows, and accelerated innovation at scale. The next decade will be decisive.

The 2025 year's year’s Fossil Detox Progress Report builds on that foundation. It evaluates how key elements of the transition have evolved since 2024, where momentum is building, where enabling conditions are emerging and where systemic barriers continue to delay progress.

The articles in The Fossil Detox Progress Report are organized across four interconnected pillars:

– Power generation: decarbonizing generation, expanding transmission, and modernizing grid infrastructure
– Industrial, residential & mobility: boosting efficiency, scaling low-carbon materials, retrofitting systems and exploring the multitude of solutions in the decarbonization of transport
– Flexibility & storage: enabling storage, demand-side response, and sector coupling in a dynamic energy landscape
– Carbon abatement & removal: addressing residual emissions and scaling nature-based and technological carbon removals

Each pillar assesses the state of transition in its respective domain, summarizing key developments, barriers, and strategic action points to accelerate fossil phase-out and secure a net-zero future.

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