Shaping futures with Speculative design

Navigating with the VUCA Concept

The world seems to be moving faster than ever, with change accelerating exponentially. This sense of rapid transformation is a common experience for many organisations and individuals within them. Traditionally, organisations have relied heavily on predictions and forecasting to navigate the future. Yet, in today’s world, the only certainty is uncertainty.

This is where the concept of VUCA – Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity – comes into play, capturing the essence of the challenges we face. So, how can we build resilience and prepare for the unknown? The answer lies in our ability to imagine possible futures. Without this skill, we cannot effectively work toward desired outcomes or mitigate emerging risks. We would even argue that the capacity to imagine futures is the defining meta-skill of next-generation design.

Why businesses struggle with long-term strategy amid rapid technological change

The World Economic Forum (WEF) reports that 75% of organisations are unprepared for the rapid pace of change within and beyond their industries¹ . Alarmingly, nearly 40% of CEOs doubt their companies will remain financially viable in the next decade without significant transformation to their business models. How is this possible in an era of such rapid technological advancement? Ironically, the very speed of technological progress may hinder our ability to envision the future. The constant pressure to keep up often pushes us toward short-term decision-making, narrowing our perspective.

This challenge is partly rooted in human psychology. Our brains are wired to prioritise immediate concerns over long-term ones, making it difficult to visualise ourselves in the distant future. The relentless pace of progress fosters a "nowist" mindset—focused on the present—rather than a forward-thinking, futurist approach. The problem with this mindset is that, when faced with growing uncertainty, we tend to become reactive and shortsighted, falling back on outdated or overly simplistic solutions.

To navigate this, we must intentionally cultivate a futurist mindset. This is where speculative design becomes invaluable, offering a framework to help us imagine and shape possibilities beyond the immediate horizon.

Speculative design – a key tool to handle your future challenges

Speculative design is about cultivating the ability to explore complex future scenarios. It challenges our ideas about how the world "is" and instead invites us to explore how it could be. By using creative tools to envision and shape possible futures, we empower organisations to adopt a "What if?" mindset. This approach encourages stepping back from today’s systems and frameworks to examine large, intricate problems without being constrained by current rules or limitations. By designing without the current limitations of technology, culture or politics, speculative design unlocks the potential for bold, transformative innovation – paving the way for the futures we aspire to create.

In a Vinnova-financed project (Sweden’s Innovation Agency), AFRY is exploring solutions for a future sustainable food system. Here we use tools such as:

• Identifying signals of change and then crafting future scenarios—narratives that explore the possible future outcomes that these signals could grow into.

• Crafting “future prototypes” – artefacts that allow us to step into and experience futures. These prototypes can take many forms, such as a webpage, a physical product, a mock policy document or something entirely different. The artefacts common factor is their ability to evoke emotions, spark reflection, and inspire conversations about the futures we desire—or wish to avoid. Hence, lending us a broader perspective to make qualified decisions about those potential future scenarios.

With these tools, we facilitate processes where stakeholders can identify disruption early, enabling them to mitigate risk or seize opportunities to generate new revenue. Our ambition is not only to predict the future, but also to shape it. In this case, crafting the best possible future food system.

As firm believers in co-creation and collective intelligence, we insist that future thinking is a skill that everyone can, and should, master. Everyone is a potential futurist, but as designers, we have unique skills in synthesising signals of change and transforming those signals into discussable, liveable and actionable futures.

How AFRY can help

AFRY’s Experience Studios brings together a full spectrum of design expertise to craft experiences that spark emotions and inspire thoughts about imagined futures. These creative explorations help our clients tackle critical long-term challenges. From crafting artefacts and developing innovative products to shaping impactful communication, we design frameworks that drive social transformation, inclusive policies, and complex systems of equity.

Within the broader AFRY network, we collaborate with key players in fields like infrastructure, urban planning, and agriculture—essential pillars in building a more inclusive, equitable, and sustainable future.

Experts in change, behaviours and strategies

Our team of experts in speculative design, market research, trend forecasting, behaviour design, strategic design, service design and user-centric innovation has a proven track record of supporting organisations and management teams with transformation strategies, across sectors and industries.

Together with our clients, we are shaping the future!