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GB Gas Security of Supply studies published by DECC


Ed: This article predates November 2019, when ÅF and Pöyry came together as AFRY.

Pöyry Energy Consulting is pleased to announce the publication of three studies commissioned by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in support of the April 2010 Gas Security of Supply Policy Statement and referred to in today's answer to a Parliamentary Question.

The studies reviewed availability of gas supplies to meet consumers' demands up to 2030, including stress tests against extreme peak day and severe winter demands across North-West Europe, and supply shocks covering the loss or disruption of major supplies from Norway, Russia or LNG. The studies conclude that Britain's current and expected gas infrastructure is sufficient to meet all but the most extreme supply failures until the end of the next decade. They identify that the most effective policy contribution comes from delivering on the current renewable and energy efficiency targets. Furthermore, the policy option of investing directly in strategic gas storage does not appear to provide sufficient benefit to justify its costs.

In addition, Pöyry's work showed that, with realistic combinations of unusual demand, supply shocks and oil prices, the probability of there being insufficient gas to meet demand is very low. However, the outlook is not risk free and the studies show that under some extreme stress tests prices can be higher than normal.

Our full press release and the three studies are available below.

  • GB gas security of supply and options for improvement.
  • Global gas and LNG markets and GB's security of supply.
  • Security of gas supply: European scenarios, policy drivers and impact on GB.

A full press release from DECC can be found at their website.

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John Williams

Head of Hydrogen Expertise Cluster, AFRY Management Consulting

Richard Sarsfield-Hall

Director, AFRY Management Consulting