Close up picture of electricity sub-station

Impact of intermittency: How wind variability could change the shape of the British and Irish electricity markets


Ed: This article predates November 2019, when ÅF and Pöyry came together as AFRY.

A ground-breaking study by leading global energy analysts Pöyry Energy Consulting has revealed for the first time how the electricity markets will be profoundly affected by the growth of wind energy.

The report, called Impact of Intermittency, provides a unique insight into how the electricity sector in the UK and Republic of Ireland could look by 2030. This new study highlights the potential hurdles and opportunities facing operators and investors in the energy sector.

The study looks at:

  • the likely scale of future wind power and the impact on thermal plant;
  • the reserve needed on the system to maintain current reliability standards;
  • how market prices will be affected and whether too much wind could collapse prices to zero;
  • whether interconnection between the two markets can provide the 'golden bullet';
  • how the country's market arrangements will cope; and
  • whether power station investment is an attractive proposition.

A summary version of the main report is available publicly and below.

A copy of Pöyry's methodology is also available below, as is the press release accompanying the report.

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James Cox

Director, AFRY Management Consulting