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Daily Valuation Curve by AFRY and Pexapark

AFRY and software advisory company Pexapark present the Daily Valuation Curve, the market's first single go-to point in the market for consistent valuations from years to decades, from pre-deal to post-deal.

Developed jointly by Pexapark and AFRY, the Daily Valuation Curve provides a single consistent framework to inform investors, lenders and financial institutions involved with renewable energy projects around their pricing, valuation, risk management, investment and hedging decisions, helping to navigate market volatility and drive the energy transition.

The Daily Valuation Curve seamlessly combines AFRY’s unique fundamental price curves, which have been a long-term reference point for the energy industry for over 20 years, and our partner Pexapark’s market-based future pricing approach, trusted by 150+ energy companies.

Overseen by an expert committee of AFRY and Pexapark, the Daily Valuation Curve is a market first, capitalising on the strengths of both trusted, alternative methodologies for the short and long term.

The success of investing in renewable or green energy is determined by access to the right data in managing investment risks and valuing new or existing renewable assets. With the rise of merchant renewables, market participants need to manage the value and risks of their energy position across all timeframes.

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AFRY and Pexapark provide you with a single go-to point in the market for consistent valuations.

Single go-to-point: A single curve for the entire asset life-time, combining market data and fundamental data

Technologies and markets: Specific curves for base load, solar PV, wind on- and offshore for many markets in Europe

Volatility: A convenient, versatile and easy-to-use interface providing the expected (P50), P10, and P90 distribution of prices for 10, 20, 30 and 40-year horizon

Consistency: The standard configuration for blended curves is established and run by AFRY and Pexapark, the most trusted parties in their respective fields. It is based on a single, consistent methodology for combination of market and fundamental prices

Convenience: Get the curve conveniently from the AFRY Analytics platform or via API directly into your system, or alternatively through Pexapark’s PexaQuote

Daily Valuation Curve visualisation
Consistent approach: Daily Valuation curve

Frequently asked questions

How are the curves generated and what is the methodology? Arrow pointing right

The Daily Valuation Curve by AFRY and Pexapark consists of the market curve on the short end (typically the liquid horizon), a transition period, and a forecasted curve beyond the transition period. The curve derived via our proprietary blending approach is effectively a forward curve that consistently reflects value across all tenors from spot to 2060. As such, it faithfully reflects asset value, showing market-obtainable price levels for typical PPA tenors and fundamentally expected values beyond.  

To reflect price uncertainty, the forward curve is supplied with P90 and P10 curves, which bracket the range within which price realisations are expected to fall with an 80% probability. In the same spirit as the blending process, the construction of P90 and P10 curves is based on market-observed volatilities on the short end and fundamental-implied volatilities on the long end. The interpolation between both along the tenor axis is performed using the volatility term structure implied by a market-standard two-factor model.  

How can I access the Daily Valuation Curve? Arrow pointing right

Get the curve conveniently from the AFRY Analytics platform or via API directly into your system, or alternatively through Pexapark’s PexaQuote platform. For a limited time, current clients can request access. Contact us via the details below.

Jan Wierzba - Director, AFRY Management Consulting
Jan Wierzba
Director, AFRY Management Consulting

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