Looking up at forest canopy

AFRY Intelligent Scenario Modelling – simulation software for complex dynamic systems

Product information

Overview Arrow pointing right

AFRY's Intelligent Scenario Modelling software has been generating models and simulations for our clients for over 20 years.

AFRY Intelligent Scenario Modelling is a simple-to-use yet powerful and flexible software tool for creating dynamic models, compartment models, and performing deterministic or probabilistic simulations. Used frequently for risk assessment, Intelligent Scenario Modelling has been widely adopted in areas such as dose calculations for humans and/or biota from any radiological, or non-radiological contaminants.

Illustration of environmental cycle for Intelligent Scenario Modelling simulation and assessment.
Illustration of environmental cycle for Intelligent Scenario Modelling simulation and assessment.

Simulation modelling and risk assessment software

Intelligent Scenario Modelling allows users to combine and assemble any number of small models into a large model. This allows new models to be developed and added to existing models. Further, it allows unnecessary sub-models and calculations to be removed, so that calculations can be optimised, avoiding wastes of time and processing power. Intelligent Scenario Modelling is equipped with fast, variable step size solvers that handle linear and non-linear transfers. The models can consist of analytical expressions, systems of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) or a combination of the two.

Intelligent Scenario Modelling includes state-of-the-art numerical solvers for numerical solution of the systems of ODEs. It incorporates an engine for performing probabilistic propagation of parameter uncertainty through the models using Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling, which can be used for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses.

Visit the Intelligent Scenario Modelling dedicated webpage, or contact us at intelligentscenariomodelling@afry.com.

Features, benefits and applications Arrow pointing right

Key features

  • Intelligent Scenario Modelling is a modelling tool specialising in dynamic simulations and compartment models. The tool is well suited for simulating the flow of air, water, contaminants, money, traffic or people.
  • Probabilistic and deterministic simulations can be performed using advanced solvers.
  • Toolboxes are available for additional functionality, including databases, sensitivity analysis, radionuclide modelling.
  • Intelligent Scenario Modelling can handle large models, making complex systems easy to manage.
  • Intelligent Scenario Modelling is fast, flexible and has state-of-the-art tools for performing risk assessments.

Intelligent Scenario Modelling Player is a free software for distributing Intelligent Scenario Modelling models.


  • Easily build models from sub-models. Add and remove blocks to create an efficient bespoke solution tailored for your specific system.
  • Integrated quality assurance tools, including model error-checking, ensure reliable results.
  • Built-in chart- and table-builder for efficient and easy export of results.
  • Compatibility with Microsoft Excel allows easy import and export of data.
  • Reduce the need for expensive sampling.
  • Quantify anticipated results – provide values to back-up claims and reassure stakeholders.
  • Test numerous potential scenarios quickly and easily.
  • Optimise future work and fieldwork – sensitivity analyses allow an improved understanding of your system. Prioritise your focus on factors that have the biggest impact on the results.
A power plant and a grain field.

Where Intelligent Scenario Modelling can be used

Intelligent Scenario Modelling can be adapted and customised for any specific usage and needs in conducting risk assessments of complex dynamic systems. Stand-alone simulation tools to address a specific purpose, based on the Intelligent Scenario Modelling Player, can be tailored to the end-user’s needs.

Nuclear sector

Intelligent Scenario Modelling's primary use has been in conducting safety and risk assessments in the Nuclear Sector, including safety assessments of nuclear facilities, medical, industrial and research facilities that make peaceful uses of radioisotopes, nuclear legacy sites and radioactive waste management facilities.

Mining industry

Intelligent Scenario Modelling has been applied to the mining sector when it comes to activities to be implemented at uranium (and other elements) mining and legacy sites. We offer support to clients for implementation of own models specific to the actions of a mine and its remediation.

Contaminated land

The contaminated land market can benefit from models including assessment of impacts of chemical or other hazards to the environment, for instance, for chemical transfer in connection to traditional waste management (landfills, etc.). Such models can be developed and saved as the Intelligent Scenario Modelling model library to simplify future modelling.

Access road down into an open pit mine


Well-established in the international market

Intelligent Scenario Modelling is well-established with customers throughout the world. The following are a few of the project references to which Intelligent Scenario Modelling has been applied:

Environmental radioactivity

  • Near-surface and geological repositories, Sweden and Finland
  • Legacy contamination, Japan
  • Chemical Plant, Ukraine
  • NORM and legacy uranium sites, Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, etc.)

Contaminated land

  • Disposal of contaminated "MKM massor", Sweden
  • Rehabilitation of former gasworks site, Sweden
Aerial view of open air radioactive waste inventory storage site


  • Mine water balance and mass load modelling, South Africa (Karowe) and Finland (Keliber)
  • Disposal of radioactive waste from the oil, gas and mining industries, Middel East (UAE)
  • Radiological public safety assessment of NORM facilities with a focus on the atmospheric pathway, South Africa (Harmony Gold, Sibanye-Stillwater, Gold Fields, DRD Gold) and Malawi (Mkongo)
Additional features Arrow pointing right

Explore and compare the additional features of AFRY Intelligent Scenario Modelling

The Intelligent Scenario Modelling license includes the ODE Toolbox which allows the user to create and simulate compartment models in Intelligent Scenario Modelling. Both linear and non-linear systems of ordinary differential equations are supported.

The following toolboxes can be purchased in conjunction with the Intelligent Scenario Modelling license acquisition at an additional cost.

  • Sensitivity Analysis Toolbox: Supports “state-of-the-art” parameter sensitivity analysis methods (local as well as global).
  • Parameter Database Toolbox: Provides a connection between Intelligent Scenario Modelling and a parameter database.
  • Radionuclide Toolbox: Features a database containing all nuclide isotopes and their decay constants and energies. It also contains the parent-daughter relationships between a radionuclide and its decay products. This toolbox is required to facilitate consideration of decay and ingrowth of radionuclides in the models.

Get started by registering or signing in to your account.

AFRY Intelligent Scenario Modelling GUI
AFRY Intelligent Scenario Modelling GUI
Support & Training Arrow pointing right

We provide complete support services for users and customers

We offer consultancy services for the following types of projects:

  • Development of tailored-made software ordered by clients, including support and maintenance after launching.
  • Implementation of additional functionalities in Intelligent Scenario Modelling by request from clients.
  • Providing support to clients for implementation of own models in Intelligent Scenario Modelling.

Software support

AFRY offers bug fixing and maintenance support to its license holders (included in the software license agreement). Through an online system, bugs can be reported which are dealt with by the appropriate AFRY staff and resolutions are communicated back to the client(s).

Intelligent Scenario Modelling support and documentation


We offer individual and group training on Intelligent Scenario Modelling and use of specific models. This training offer is in addition to the free online training offered as part of the licensing package. Such training is organized according to specific client requests and can take place at AFRY offices or at client premises.

Read more about training

AFRY Intelligent Scenario Modelling Player Arrow pointing right

Intelligent Scenario Modelling Player is a free software for distributing Intelligent Scenario Modelling models

Intelligent Scenario Modelling Player features the same functionality as Intelligent Scenario Modelling, with the exception that the model structure cannot be changed. It can be downloaded by anyone who has registered an account and log in.

Intelligent Scenario Modelling Player includes following features:

  • Select species and other indices
  • Review model structure and equations
  • Assign parameter values and probability density functions
  • Assign time-dependent inputs
  • Select simulation outputs
  • Specify simulation settings
  • Run best estimate or Monte Carlo simulations
  • Create charts and tables from simulation output
  • Generate report
Intelligent Scenario Modelling player screenshot
Intelligent Scenario Modelling player screenshot
AFRY Intelligent Scenario Modelling animation
How does the program work?
In AFRY Intelligent Scenario Modelling we model a system by dividing it into compartments and defining fluxes between them.
View by the water, rocks in the shore, buildings in the background

Try it for free

AFRY Intelligent Scenario Modelling can be installed for a one-month free evaluation period, with all toolboxes and functionality activated.