Windfarm with clear dark sky

How wind generation could transform gas markets in GB and Ireland


Ed: This article predates November 2019, when ÅF and Pöyry came together as AFRY.

In 2010, Pöyry carried out a ground breaking study into the impact of high levels of intermittent renewable generation on the gas markets of GB and Ireland.

This study followed on from the ‘GB and Ireland electricity intermittency study’, which concluded that the running pattern of gas-fired CCGTs would be very different in the future compared to today if wind penetration were to rise significantly. The variability of wind means that CCGTs tend to run when wind is not blowing, so the intermittency of wind will be passed on through to gas demand.

The study concluded that within-day requirements on the grid to manage linepack will increase and the network will have to be operated more flexibly – however, there does not appear to be a need for any immediate action to change market arrangements. The Irish market will probably be affected more than in GB, as wind generation has a greater share of total supply. However, it is well connected with GB and the impact should not be significant. The combination of increased requirements for flexibility and increased price volatility should lead to higher values for gas storage post-2025.

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James Cox - Director, AFRY Management Consulting

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Director, AFRY Management Consulting

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