Energy Market Analysis and Forecasting
Deep sector understanding, underpinned by world-leading modelling and analytics. We pride ourselves on having the most powerful market modelling available to tackle the most complex problems in energy markets. Our modelling suite encompasses oil, coal, gas, carbon and electricity, and underpins AFRY Independent Market Reports: the definitive guide to future energy markets.
Our experience of modelling energy markets dates back over 20 years, since the beginning of liberalisation of electricity and gas markets, and since then we have tackled all major challenges in the energy sector.
Our experience has been that using simple models that do not capture the interactions of the real world lead to answers that may be simple and clear, but are often wrong. The increasing interaction in energy markets between countries and between sectors (such as gas, electricity and carbon) means that it is often not sufficient to model a single market in isolation. The interactions between markets are often more important.
With rapidly growing renewables, our modelling has grown to encompass multiple weather patterns of wind, solar, hydro, demand and temperature to guarantee the highest accuracy. With falling technology costs, we capture the growth and operation of new technologies such as grid-scale batteries, flexible EV charging and growth of behind-the-meter generation. And we capture the myriad of rapid changes, including policy changes such as the introduction of capacity markets or flow-based market coupling and the rise in merchant renewables and corporate PPAs.
Our offering begins with AFRY Independent Market Reports. These reports are the definitive bankable guide to electricity markets and future energy prices. Alongside these reports we provide independent views of asset-specific capture prices, such as wind and solar revenues.
We offer bespoke projections to clients that need tailored scenarios, and also act as an outsourced modelling department for clients that need access to both our analytical capability and our deep sector knowledge.
For clients needing the flexibility of their own models, we licence our power market model, BID3 and our gas model, Pegasus. BID3 is used by 16 companies, including many of Europe’s largest utilities and TSOs.
We provide bespoke studies covering policy questions as well as board-level strategic issues.
Finally our multi-client studies are known for pushing the boundaries of knowledge, tackling topics that are complex and opaque, and bringing insight and understanding. They have covered topics as diverse as intermittency, deep decarbonisation, the growing impact of behind-the-meter generation and future market design.
In all fields, our advice remains independent and impartial. Our core expertise covers:
- Independent and bankable price projections, AFRY's Independent Market Reports (PIMR)
- Asset specific analysis, in particular capture prices for renewables
- Bespoke scenarios and projections, used for strategic advice and decision making
- Licencing our electricity market model BID3, as well as our gas model, Pegasus, along with benchmarked datasets
- Acting as an outsourced modelling department to efficiently carry out analysis on demand for our clients
- Strategic advice, building from our analytical capability
- Multi-client studies, to push the forefront of commercial knowledge
20 years of market modelling experience
National Grid Electricity System Operator has been using the BID3 power market model since 2016, and it has made a huge improvement to our GB investment analysis. With the enhanced modelling in BID3 we can be sure we’re doing the best for the GB Consumer. Above all, the support from the AFRY team (former Pöyry) and their flexibility in adding new features to the model have been key success factors and we’re looking forward to building a long term relationship with the team.