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Pegasus4: AFRY’s Global Gas Market Model

Pegasus4 is AFRY’s proprietary gas market model, used to simulate supply availability, pipeline/storage utilisation and LNG capacities whilst accounting for gas contracts. The model provides for all European, most global and national gas supply and demand balances.

A single European gas market is emerging from a series of national and sub-national gas markets which are increasingly interconnected and interdependent. Historically, independent and vertically-integrated national and sub-national monopolies decided the flows but with increasing liberalisation, non-discriminatory access regimes, and commercial balancing mechanisms – the market will now decide what flows where. However, there still remains oil-indexation, market dominance issues, and a differing pace of liberalisation across regions.

In order to provide an accurate picture of this environment, AFRY Management Consulting developed Pegasus4 which underpins the gas market analysis in our reports, market studies and consultancy assignments. The model outputs gas prices and flows throughout Europe which have taken full account of both long term gas contracts and marginal cost supplies, all in a user friendly environment.

Pegasus4 is provided with a full European-focussed global data set which includes pipelines, storage facilities, LNG and regasification infrastructure, demand projections, and gas demand for power generation, as well as global LNG supply capacity, pipeline supplies to Europe and our view on unconventional gas growth.

The model is available to purchase by clients to use at their premises. Pegasus4 is supplied with an intensive training programme with a view to ensuring that clients can adapt it to their needs and extract maximum value from it. This includes an exploration of the underlying dataset – the capacities, costs, and contracts of the model, as well as all underlying assumptions and modelling parameters – delivered and supported by AFRY’s market modelling experts.

Key features of the model:
  • Sophisticated modelling of the gas flows capturing all of the Europe’s infrastructure and most of the global infrastructure based on minimum cost optimisation.
  • Detailed modelling of the storage facilities, daily resolution of the prices and flows.
  • Option to input proprietary information to develop scenarios.
  • A user-friendly and intuitive interface, requiring minimal training to use providing user with the capability to bulk data editing.
  • Model is scalable, adaptable and transparent.

To arrange a demonstration or for further information, please contact us.

20 years of gas market modelling experience
Nnamdi Ibeanu - Manager, AFRY Management Consulting
Nnamdi Ibeanu
Manager, AFRY Management Consulting

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