AFRY BID3: Power Market Modeling Suite
BID3 - State-of-the-art energy market modeling software
BID3 is AFRY’s electricity market dispatch model that uses advanced mathematical techniques to model the dispatch of power stations, market prices, capacity evolution, and all other important features of power markets.
BID3 continues to be at the cutting edge of power market modeling. Whether it is the challenges posed by intermittent renewables, the need to find the value of flexibility or understanding the impact of market design changes, BID3 provides the detailed modeling tools needed.
Licensed daily by generators, regulators and TSOs, BID3 is used in nearly all electricity markets worldwide, including Europe, North and South America, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East.
Highly flexible and user-friendly, BID3 consistently earns praise for its accuracy and ease of use. The modeling suite supports analysis across a wide range of timeframes, from short-term trading support with live data feeds to strategic scenario analysis out to 2050 for decarbonization targets.
BID3 is used extensively to underpin AFRY’s own analysis, thought leadership and deep analysis of electricity markets. It is the modeling platform used for the AFRY Independent Market Reports, giving the power price projections used by major banks, utilities, governments and developers. Backed by in-house modeling that is continuously updated, our reports have been relied upon by the financing community for over 25 years.
What can you do with BID3?
Solve the biggest of markets with ease: Simulate how every power plant, storage unit, and interconnector operates hour-by-hour across a power system. BID3 is also scalable from a simple laptop through to distributed High Performance Computing Clusters and Cloud environments.
Model diverse power systems: Whether it is the stochastic dynamic programming needed to calculate the option value for water stored in Nordic reservoirs, or the co-optimization of power and water production in the Middle East, BID3 contains the functionality to model very diverse power systems.
Plan ahead: BID3 can support decarbonization studies, investment planning, and strategic policy analysis through equipping you to run long-term scenarios to 2050.
Analyze capacity evolution: Explore how technologies evolve under different scenarios, including retirements, new builds, and flexibility needs. We work alongside our clients to customize the software and make sure that it is developed to model all the latest trends in electricity markets.
Evaluate hydrogen and emerging technologies: BID3 can simulate all aspects of hydrogen generation, supporting a system that meets both electricity demand and hydrogen demand simultaneously.
Perform short term simulations: BID3 Short Term provides bottom up simulations up to three years ahead for traders and analysts who need fast, accurate what-if analysis.
Support asset valuation and financing: Used by banks and investors to assess revenue streams, risks, and long-term project viability.
Test policy and market design changes: Understand how reforms, capacity markets, subsidies, and carbon pricing affect dispatch, prices, and system reliability.
BID3 provides a depth of functionality in modeling electricity markets. Users have the flexibility to simulate simple electricity systems, complex mixed-integer or capacity expansion problems.
Dispatch: The Dispatch module is where the detailed calculations are carried out in BID3. The module enables simulation of the most detailed aspects of markets to a 1 min resolution
Scenarios: Build scenarios with ease through the powerful Auto Build module, which uses unique decomposition techniques to accurately simulate new build of all possible technologies
Renewables: Designed to simulate markets with growing renewables, BID3 ensures consistency in weather patterns and provides accurate weather modeling
Investment: Ensure your scenarios are consistent, with all new build making a return on capital
Hydro: Beginning as the offspring of a thermal model combined with a hydro scheduling model, BID3 preserves the best of both worlds
Hydrogen: Hydrogen infrastructure could be a solution to balancing a higher renewable system, and BID3 allows you to model all aspects of hydrogen
Nodal: Simulate the complexities of nodal markets, including N-1 constraints. BID3 also models zonal markets using NTCs or PTDFs
Flexibility: Through BID3, all types of flexibility can be modelled, from electric cars through to flexible heating. The software is equally effective looking at reserve markets and re-dispatch
Adequacy: Adequacy assessment is the study of whether the 'lights will go out'. BID3 accomplishes this analysis through a dedicated LOLE module
Short-term: Powerful and consistent, BID3 can simulate short-term markets, allowing automated overnight runs to understand the traded forward curves. Ensure short-term and long-term simulations always stay harmonised
The BID3 electricity market model has been used extensively by our clients to carry out market simulations. Below are some of our most recent client studies.
ENTSO-E: Bidding Zone Review for the 2025 Target Year
We unlocked the core capabilities and data design flexibility of BID3 in a single toolchain for the Central Europe Bidding Zone Review (BZR) Region, whilst in the Nordics our teams helpfully honed the hydro dispatch for the Nordic BZR Region. BID3 was instrumental for the project, delivering:
- Better representation of markets with full implementation of Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC)
- In-depth hydro optimization and forecasting under uncertainty for the Nordics
- Decision making of the highest confidence for determining securities as well as economic efficiencies
Statnett: Long-term Market Analysis 2020-2050
Statnett prepares a Long-Term Market Analysis (LMA) every two years, compiled to keep track of and analyse the long-term development in the power market. The analysis includes the main trends and uncertainties in the development of the power system, document's Statnett's assumptions, and offers a forecast for expected power prices and predicted price outcomes under various circumstances. To do the required simulations, they have combined BID3 with the Samnett model.
"Our market analysis enables us to see future operational challenges in advance and serves as an important basis for our investment decisions. In 2016, we started publishing this work in a separate report. This is part of our goal of greater transparency surrounding our assessments, and a more qualified dialogue concerning our decisions," said Anders Kringstad, Head of Market Analysis in Statnett.
Become a BID3 power user - Familiarize yourself with our market modeling software through self-taught and instructor-led training.
Learn BID3 at your own pace through our online modular training course, included at no additional cost. Videos and worked examples are provided to help grow your knowledge of the software, while your understanding can be tested through the end of unit quizzes.
Our remote instructor led sessions allow teams to learn together despite locational differences. Simply log into the cloud and an instructor will guide you through concepts, provide exercises, and resolve any difficulties faced.
Prefer an in-person experience? For new customers, face-to-face training is included in the BID3 license. Our BID3 experts will show the basics of Dispatch (day-ahead) simulation, building on this through training your team on the various modules so that you can build complete scenarios of the future.
The BID3 user forum provides clients with a platform to share ideas, identify best practices and learn from others.
Award winning software
AFRY BID3 received the 2026 FICO® Decision Award for ESG Champion, recognizing its role in supporting national energy policy, long-term planning and billion-dollar investment decisions through robust, scalable optimization, and enabling evidence-based, cost-efficient pathways to net zero for governments, grid operators and investors.
Our electricity market modeling coverage is worldwide and continually expanding
How can BID3 assist my transition needs?
- Optimize operational planning: Through simulating the hour-by-hour dispatch of power stations, BID3 helps you understand how your assets will run under different market conditions.
- Support investment decisions: By modeling future market prices, capacity evolution, and the impact of renewables, you can evaluate new builds, retrofits, storage, and flexibility options.
- Assess system impacts: BID3 helps quantify congestion, interconnector flows, and constraint costs, essential for TSOs and large utilities.
- Plan for decarbonization: The model captures the challenges of intermittent renewables and hydrogen integration, enabling long-term planning aligned with net zero goals.
- Test policy and market design changes: Regulators can simulate how reforms (capacity markets, carbon pricing, subsidies) affect dispatch, prices, and system reliability.
- Ensure grid stability: BID3’s detailed modeling of interconnector flows and constraint costs supports system-wide stability assessments and cross-border coordination.
- Evaluate long-term scenarios: The tool is used globally by regulators and TSOs to understand future system evolution and the impact of decarbonization pathways.
- Support evidence-based regulation: High accuracy modeling provides a robust analytical foundation for consultations, impact assessments, and regulatory decisions.
- Assess project profitability: BID3 forecasts market prices and revenue streams for assets such as renewables, thermal plants, storage, and interconnectors, making it essential for bankability assessments.
- Evaluate risk under multiple scenarios: Investors can test sensitivities (fuel prices, carbon, policy changes) to understand downside and upside risks.
- Understand long term market evolution: Capacity evolution modeling helps investors anticipate retirements, new builds, and future market tightness.
- Forecast short-term prices: BID3 combines short-term forecasts with long-term projections, supporting trading strategies and hedging decisions.
- Run fast what-if analysis: Traders can simulate the impact of outages, weather changes, fuel price shifts, or interconnector constraints.
- Support risk management: By modeling system behavior under stress conditions (low wind, high demand), BID3 helps quantify exposure to price spikes and volatility.
Frequently asked questions
- What makes BID3 a trustworthy tool for market analysis and decision‑making?
- How is BID3 used by real clients, such as TSOs and regulators, in real-world studies?
We use the model ourselves and make our calibrated datasets available to clients. These have a unique level of scrutiny and allow you to benefit from our deep expertise. Furthermore, this allows us to provide a support helpdesk where you can get through to real experts who know your markets.
BID3 is trusted by TSOs and regulators to deliver rigorous, real‑world insights that shape energy system planning and market design. Svenska Kraftnät has used BID3 in benchmarking studies comparing long‑term hydropower planning methods, where BID3 delivered the lowest average electricity costs and avoided load shedding, outperforming alternative approaches. BID3 also supports regulatory innovation: in a major study for the National Energy System Operator (NESO), it modelled the market and operational impacts of 24/7 Carbon‑Free Energy trading, demonstrating how hourly matching can influence dispatch, strengthen system flexibility, and accelerate progress toward clean‑power goals.
